How TickAlert was developed

The life cycle of ticks is highly influenced by environmental factors such as temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. Because of this sensitivity, years of research have proven that we can very accurately predict the development of ticks, given the environmental conditions of specific areas.

Using our knowledge of tick biology we can build mathematical equations that reflect how every climate variable influences the dynamics of a given tick cycle period, and evaluate the effects of temperature on, say, the mortality or the percent of active ticks.

Gathering weather information

Of course, a key component of this forecasting tool is the availability of accurate weather information. The weather data we use is developed from a combination of ground recording stations and weather satellites that capture climate data including surface temperature or water saturation levels.

Because of the expanse of the territory (the entire U.S.!) covered by TickAlert, we have also incorporated historical weather data from the past 10 years, at 10 days intervals, in areas of little more than half-square-mile sections.

Using this weather data in combination with life-cycle information for each tick species, we can provide "the most probable tick life cycle" for every ZIP code in the U.S.

These values are then converted to the charts displayed in this Web site.

A note of disclaimer

Climate is a significant, but not the only influence for tick development. The density of some key hosts may drastically change these patterns within small local areas of any region. Accurate data about the abundance of hosts for ticks have been obtained from the GAP project (http://www.gap.uidaho.edu) as well as from maps prepared by specialists on the topic.

Furthermore, extreme climate differences from historical patterns may influence the tick life cycle in specific regions that are not captured by the models.

TickAlert development team

This project has been built by a team of nine scientists, lead by Prof. Agustin Estrada-Pena at the University of Zaragoza (Spain). The team is involved with the study of the ecology of ticks and tick-borne diseases, especially to the forecasting of habitats suitable for tick survival. The project ELASTick (Evaluation of Landscape Suitability for Ticks) is a general framework aimed to integrate both climate and tick ecology into computer software, and the build up of a Geographic Information System. We want to acknowledge the support by Virbac Corporation US in the development of this specific project.